“For reasons I have never understood, people like to hear that the world is going to hell, and become huffy and scornful when some idiotic optimist intrudes on their pleasure.”
Human beings possess a strange fascination with disaster. Deirdre McCloskey – Faculty Profile – University of Illinois Chicago Every day, we consume a steady diet of distressing news. We scroll through reports of global conflict. We read about rising crime rates. We obsess over environmental collapse. Consequently, it feels like society is crumbling around us. However, this feeling often contradicts reality.
Empirical data tells a different story. Poverty rates have plummeted globally. Life expectancy has soared. Medical science cures diseases that once decimated populations. Yet, we largely ignore these triumphs. Instead, we cling to narratives of doom. A brilliant economist noticed this paradox. She observed that people actually prefer bad news. Furthermore, she noted that they react with hostility when someone points out the positive truth.
This specific observation comes from Deirdre Nansen McCloskey. She is a distinguished professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago. Her insight perfectly captures our modern struggle between perception and data. It challenges us to question our pessimistic instincts. Why do we embrace the idea that the world is ending? Moreover, why do we reject the evidence of our own progress?
The Origin of the Insight
Deirdre McCloskey penned this famous line in 2014. It appeared in an academic review. Specifically, she published it in the Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics, Volume 7, Issue 2. She was reviewing a popular book by Thomas Piketty titled Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Piketty’s book focused heavily on income inequality.
McCloskey took a broader view. She examined economic history from 1800 to the present. She described this era as “pretty good history.” Indeed, humanity made massive strides during this period. However, she noticed a pattern among intellectuals. Economic pessimists consistently predicted disaster. They warned of collapse. Yet, their dire predictions rarely came true.
Despite this record of failure, pessimism remains popular. McCloskey pointed out that negative forecasts sell well. People buy books that predict the apocalypse. Conversely, they ignore books that celebrate slow, steady improvement. She expressed her confusion clearly. She admitted she did not understand this preference for doom.
Furthermore, she highlighted the reaction to optimism. Source She noted that people become “huffy and scornful.” They treat optimists as if they are stupid. McCloskey defended the optimistic view. She argued that we are “gigantically richer in body and spirit” than our ancestors. . Therefore, the pessimistic outlook is not just depressing; it is factually incorrect.
The Seduction of Pessimism
Why does pessimism hold such power over us? Morgan Housel offered an explanation. Housel is a financial writer who noticed McCloskey’s quote. He wrote about it for The Motley Fool in January 2016. He referenced McCloskey’s statement to explain market behavior.
Housel argued that pessimism sounds intellectually deep. When someone predicts a crash, they sound smart. They sound like they are trying to help you. In contrast, optimism often sounds like a sales pitch. If someone says, “everything will be fine,” they sound naive. They might even sound like they are ignoring the problems.
Consequently, we pay more attention to the pessimist. We treat their warnings with gravity. We dismiss the optimist as a fool. Housel noted that this bias exists despite history. Historically, things usually get better for most people. Yet, the pessimist commands the room.
This creates a feedback loop. We reward those who tell us the world is ending. We give them our attention. Therefore, media outlets produce more negative content. They feed our desire for danger. We feel informed when we consume bad news. In reality, we are often misinformed. We lose sight of the long-term trend of improvement.
Media Amplification and Context
The quote gained further traction through major media. Eduardo Porter featured it in The New York Times. On January 19, 2016, he wrote an article titled “America’s Best Days May Be Behind It.” Porter used McCloskey’s words to frame the discussion.
Porter connected this modern pessimism to historical figures. He mentioned Thomas Malthus. Malthus famously predicted that population growth would cause mass starvation. He was wrong. Innovation in agriculture saved us. However, the Malthusian mindset persists.
Whenever the economy slows, doomsday predictions return. Porter noted that diminished expectations breed apocalyptic forecasts. When times are tough, we believe the end is near. Then, conditions improve. The predictions fail. We forget them until the next downturn.
McCloskey’s quote cuts through this cycle. It reminds us that our bias is emotional, not rational. We like the drama of the decline. It validates our anxieties. However, indulging this preference blinds us. We miss the incredible innovations happening right now. We ignore the data that proves our resilience.
Choosing to Be the “Idiotic Optimist”
McCloskey’s words serve as a challenge. She invites us to risk looking foolish. She encourages us to embrace the role of the “idiotic optimist.” This does not mean we ignore problems. We must still address war, poverty, and climate change.
However, we should approach these challenges with perspective. We should acknowledge how far we have come. We have solved impossible problems before. We can solve them again.
Recognizing progress gives us agency. If we believe the world is going to hell, we might give up. Why try if the end is inevitable? But if we see the progress, we feel empowered. We understand that our efforts matter.
Therefore, the next time you hear a dire prediction, pause. Remember McCloskey’s observation. Ask yourself if you are enjoying the bad news. Check the data. You might find that the world is doing better than you think. You might decide to be an optimist. People may become huffy and scornful. Let them. You will have the truth on your side.