“People Will Only Work Fifteen Hours a Week In the Future”
This bold prediction often surfaces in discussions about automation and the future of work. It sounds like a modern dream born from the age of artificial intelligence. However, its origins trace back nearly a century. The famous British economist John Maynard Keynes first proposed this idea. He explored it in his 1930 essay, “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren.” As technology accelerates at an unprecedented pace, Keynes’s vision is more relevant than ever. It forces us to ask: why aren’t we there yet?
. Source
The Economic Prophecy of John Maynard Keynes
In 1930, the world was grappling with the Great Depression. Yet, John Maynard Keynes offered a stunningly optimistic long-term forecast. He argued that the economic problem of scarcity, which had plagued humanity for millennia, was solvable. Keynes predicted that within 100 years, technological progress and capital accumulation would create a world of unprecedented abundance. Specifically, he forecasted that the standard of living in progressive countries would be four to eight times higher by 2030 . Source
This massive leap in productivity would fundamentally change our relationship with work. With basic needs easily met, society would no longer need to toil for long hours. However, Keynes understood human psychology. He acknowledged the ingrained need for purpose, which he called “the old Adam” in us. People need some work to feel fulfilled. His solution was simple and elegant. We should spread the remaining work thinly across the population. This led to his famous conclusion: “Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week may put off the problem for a great while.”
A World of Intelligent Leisure
Keynes was not the only intellectual of his time pondering a future of abundance. In the same year, philosopher Bertrand Russell published “The Conquest of Happiness.” Russell explored the psychological challenges that widespread leisure could create. He observed that many people, when given free time, struggle to find meaningful activities. Russell wisely noted, “To be able to fill leisure intelligently is the last product of civilization, and at present very few people have reached this level.” Both thinkers recognized that the transition to a leisure-focused society would require a shift in our values and education, not just our technology.
Later Visions and the Modern Reality
The idea of a shorter work week continued to evolve. In 1967, futurists Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener published “The Year 2000.” They envisioned a postindustrial society where people worked far less. Their model suggested around 1,100 working hours per year. This breaks down to a 7.5-hour day, a four-day work week, and 39 working weeks annually. Consequently, this structure would allow for long vacations and numerous holidays. They correctly foresaw many of the technologies that would enable this, including widespread computer use and advanced robotics.
. Herman Kahn – RAND Corporation History
So, what happened? The productivity gains Keynes predicted have largely materialized. Technology has advanced beyond what many imagined. Yet, the 15-hour work week remains a distant dream for most. Instead of choosing more leisure, society has overwhelmingly chosen more consumption. This phenomenon, often called lifestyle inflation, means our wants have expanded alongside our ability to produce. The drive for social status, often measured by material wealth, keeps us locked in a cycle of working longer hours to earn and buy more. Furthermore, the economic gains from productivity have not been shared equally, forcing many to work more just to maintain their standard of living.
Is the 15-Hour Work Week Still on the Horizon?
The conversation is far from over. Today, the rise of artificial intelligence has reignited the debate with new urgency. Companies and even countries are experimenting with reduced work schedules, most notably the four-day work week. Many trials show promising results. These include increased employee well-being, sustained or even improved productivity, and lower operational costs. These modern experiments suggest that a shorter work week is not just a utopian fantasy but a practical possibility.
Achieving this future, however, may require fundamental societal shifts. Concepts like Universal Basic Income (UBI) are being discussed as a way to decouple survival from employment. Ultimately, realizing Keynes’s vision depends on our collective choices. Will we continue to prioritize endless growth and consumption? Or will we finally leverage our incredible technological tools to build a society that values time, well-being, and intelligent leisure? As we stand on the cusp of another technological revolution, the choice is ours to make.