“It is far more likely that the programming occupation will become extinct than that it will become all-powerful. More and more, computers will program themselves, and direction will be given to computers through the mediation of compiling systems. Moreover, the task of communicating with computers will become less and less technical as computers come—by means of compiling techniques—closer and closer to handling the irregularities of natural language.”. Source
This wasn’t a tweet from last week. It wasn’t a hot take from a recent tech podcast. Herbert A. Simon, a future Nobel laureate, made this startling prediction in 1960. He envisioned a world where computers understood human language. In this world, the specialized, technical role of a programmer would simply fade away. For decades, this idea seemed like pure science fiction. Programmers became a powerful, essential part of the modern economy.
Today, however, Simon’s words feel incredibly prescient. The rise of powerful AI has reignited the debate. Tech leaders now echo his sixty-year-old sentiment. This begs the question: is the programming profession truly on the verge of extinction? Or is it simply evolving into something new?
. Herbert A. Simon – Biographical
The Prophecy and Its Modern Echoes
Herbert A. Simon’s prediction was part of a broader analysis of automation’s future. He believed technology’s goal was to become more accessible, not more complex for the end-user. . He saw self-programming computers as the logical endpoint. This would eliminate the need for a human translator between an idea and a machine-executable command. Source. Andrej Karpathy – Stanford University Computer Science
Fast forward to our current era. The echoes of Simon’s vision are undeniable. Andrej Karpathy, a co-founder of OpenAI, concisely captured this shift. He famously tweeted, “The hottest new programming language is English.” This statement perfectly encapsulates the move toward natural language interfaces for creating complex software. We are instructing machines with our words, not just with rigidly structured code. Eric Schmidt – Special Competitive Studies Project
Furthermore, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt provided a more dramatic timeline. In an interview, he suggested that a vast majority of programmers could be replaced by AI programmers in the near future. . This represents a consensus view among many industry leaders. They believe AI is not just a tool for programmers but a potential replacement for many of their core functions. Source
Is It Extinction or Evolution?
While the word “extinction” is provocative, the reality may be more nuanced. The role of a programmer is not disappearing. Instead, it is undergoing a profound transformation. The focus is shifting from writing lines of code to defining problems and guiding AI systems. The core task is moving from low-level implementation to high-level strategy and design.
Think of it like the evolution of car manufacturing. We moved from artisans hand-crafting every component to massive, automated assembly lines. The artisan car-builder role became rare, but it didn’t eliminate the need for automotive engineers, designers, and robotics supervisors. Similarly, the programmer of tomorrow may not write Python loops. They will, however, design systems, orchestrate AI agents, and validate the logic of AI-generated code. This requires a different, arguably more advanced, set of skills.
The New Skillset for Software Creation
The demand for specific technical skills is changing rapidly. As AI handles more of the mundane coding, new roles and responsibilities emerge. For instance, prompt engineering has become a critical skill. It involves crafting precise instructions to elicit the desired output from an AI model. This is less about syntax and more about clarity, context, and creative problem-solving.
Additionally, skills in system architecture and design are becoming even more valuable. A human must still define the overall structure of an application. They must ensure that the components, whether built by AI or not, work together seamlessly. This involves understanding business requirements, user experience, and data flow at a deep level. Finally, verification and debugging remain essential. Programmers will increasingly act as expert reviewers, tasked with spotting the subtle flaws in AI-generated software that the machine itself cannot see. Prompt Engineering – MIT
The Enduring Need for Human Oversight
Despite AI’s incredible capabilities, the idea of complete automation in software development remains distant. AI models are powerful tools for generation, but they lack true understanding, consciousness, and common-sense reasoning. They are trained on existing data, making them excellent at solving problems that have been solved before. However, they struggle with creating truly novel solutions to unprecedented challenges.
Therefore, human ingenuity remains the driving force behind innovation. We need people to build, maintain, and improve the underlying AI systems. We also need experts who can intervene when an AI produces code that is inefficient, insecure, or ethically biased. The programmer’s role may evolve into that of a conductor, guiding an orchestra of AI tools to create a symphony of software. The conductor doesn’t play every instrument, but their vision and direction are indispensable.
In conclusion, Herbert A. Simon – Carnegie Mellon University was right. The programming occupation as he knew it is indeed heading toward extinction. The tedious, line-by-line translation of human logic into machine code is being automated. However, this is not the end of the road. It is the dawn of a new era where human creativity is augmented, not replaced. The future of software creation will require us to be better thinkers, designers, and problem-solvers, leaving the typing to the machines.